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BEAT THE GAME
If you're absolutely sick of all the BS
systems, getting your ass kicked by the sportsbooks and finding it hard
to make a single dollar in profit betting on football online?
I bet you are!
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I'm going to show you 4 easy, proven systems to start dumping cash into your bank account, without any risks.
If
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You
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You see, I'm coming out from the
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Why?
I'm just sick of seeing all the bad...
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you fail.
You see... I've been right where you have... No success, and working like crazy trying to make this work.
Now you're lucky because I didn't have anyone willing to tell me the truth like you have today.
In soccer betting, there are two important things. They are
odds and bookmakers.
A bookmaker is a betting company where anyone who wants to bet can come and
place their stakes. Odds enable you to know the amount you will be paid as
returns if the outcome you bet on turns out to be what happened.
For example, if Man United is playing Fulham in the Barclays premier league,
there are three outcomes. Home team (Man U) to win, Away team (Fulham) to
win and a draw. Each outcome has its odd
Man U (1.50) Draw (3.44) Fulham (2.25)
If you stake on Man United to win and it happens that way, then your returns is
= bet amount multiplied by 1.50. Very simple.
The disadvantage with this is that you can lose money easily because you cannot
tell for sure the outcome of the match. When you win this week you will be
happy. Then the next week, you can lose all your former winnings and more
money.
ALTERNATE BETTING PATTERN
Arbitrage betting is the solution to this. Arbitraging is betting on soccer
matches
from different bookmakers offering different odds on different outcomes.
Arbitraging takes advantage of the fact that different bookmakers in different
parts of the world will lay different odds on the same outcome and sometimes
they are different enough to enable an Arbitrage Bet to cover all the possible
outcomes and come out with a profit. With arbitraging, whatever the outcome
the return is certain. When you calculations are done correctly, arbitrage
betting
is totally free from losses.
THE CHALLENGES OF ARBITRAGE BETTING
1. Large Number of accounts with different bookmakers.
2. To make reasonable amount of money with arbitrage betting, you need
about $30,000.
3. Arbitraging demands time.
THE SOLUTION
The solution to losses as stated above is arbitrage betting. You also know that
there are challenges associated with arbitrage betting. The solution to the
challenges of arbitrage betting is to go through a company that offers an
arbitrage
pool. An arbitrage pool is a service where the company gathers funds from
bettors who
prefer to arbitrage with 100% certainty of getting their capital and profit no
matter the outcome of the match rather than betting normally and end up losing
all their money. You get paid consistently after the arbitrage company has
withdrawn your money alongside other people’s money from the bookmakers
which they staked on.
The main company that offers this kind of service is Soccer Investment. Their
website is www.soccerinvestment.com.
Soccer Investment is the best way for Nigerians to make money online
consistently without effort. The arbitrage odd they offer varies from 1.07 to
1.15,
i.e. 7% to 15% stress free profit per game. Soccer Investment has a good system
in
place which helps them to gather odds from different bookmakers. After doing
their calculation, they know what the arbitrage odd is. They make money by
keeping 3% of the profit. This means when they say a game has arbitrage odd of
1.10, their actual calculation was 1.13%. They keep 3% profit and they list
their
matches with arbitrage odds of 1.10 giving their customers 10% profit.
Another reason why Soccer Investment is highly recommended is that they accept
payment by direct deposit into their account in Nigeria. When they are paying
out
returns, they also pay by direct deposit into customers’ bank account. You do
not
need online payment like paypal, etc.
The Top Seven Ways to Lose Against Football
After our previous articles, that dealt mostly with the
theoretical side and the general set up of your betting, we decided to
deal with the selection process itself this time. We will start off by
stating the most common errors, other than poor money management, that
make people lose money on the long run, and address every of them. Most
of newbie punters make all of these mistakes, while numerous
experienced punters make at least some of them. Mastering yourself is
one of the keys to being a successful bettor, and we would advise you to
pay advantage to the following things:
1. Underestimating home team advantage
I’ve been reading a preview on the Bettingadvice home page, and in it,
the tipster stated that “the odds of 2.3 on the away team are value
because teams are very much on equal level”. This was enough for me to
dismiss this tipster as a serious punter, as the actual fact is that, in
a match of two equal teams where the away team is priced at 2.2 with
dnb, the value would be on the home team. The home field advantage is a
very important factor, and is something that most of the punters cannot
calculate. Moreover, the public bettors who cannot calculate home
advantage help us get value on numerous home teams. The home field
advantage varies by league or, in certain cases, by team; we will not
tell you exactly how much playing in front of their own fans boosts a
team’s chances of winning the match, but we will advise you to monitor
odds closely(especially when teams of nearly equal strength face each
other), and look at historical results and odds. Generally, the home
field advantage in a given league is less than -1/2 goals but more than
-1/4 goals, and most of the punters are underestimating it.
2. Taking bets according to ancient form
Of course, form is a very important factor in betting. Teams that
start their season with a few consecutive home wins will have huge
confidence in their upcoming home games, and so on. The thing most
punters do not understand is that form is a very delicate thing – it is a
bubble that keeps expanding but bursts very easily. Once a team loses
it’s first match following a long winning run, the second defeat is
usually not too far away(unless, of course, it is a top team), but many
people will make bets on this team according to their previous form, and
almost always lose. Ie, Osasuna started their 2005/06 season with nine
home wins in a row. They were then held to a draw by Racing Santander
and were a public bet in all of their remaining home games, as the
public saw them as an invincible home team that should bounce back. The
thing is, fantastic runs of form mostly come down to confidence, and
once such a run form ends, you should not expect the team to repeat it.
The same applies for extremely poor runs of form.
3. Using H2H the wrong way
Novice tipsters adore H2H stats. Many of the picks they have are
highly motivated by previous meetings between two teams and many picks
are skipped due to not being favored by H2H. The truth is that a H2H
pattern is usually set by a string of coincidences, and previous
meetings are most of the time not taken into account at all by serious
punters. Simply, teams change a lot over the years and previous meetings
usually mean nothing when it comes to comparing the current strength of
the teams and have no effect on the players. An exception are matches
where there are rivalries between the teams in question: in such cases,
the team that has been bossing recent H2H stats usually has a
significant mental advantage that should be taken into account. But
these are extremely rare cases(Arsenal’s dominance over Tottenham and
Basel’s dominance over Zurich are the only ones I can recall)
4. Chasing
Chasing is one of the most common reasons why punters lose and,
although we all have a basic instinct that very much urges us to chase
after losing runs, we must avoid doing this at all costs. There are two
types of chasing: chasing regarding a certain teams and chasing losses
in general. You know you are chasing a team when you take them to win or
lose(or, God forbid, draw) several times in a row. If course, it is
completely Okay for you to go against a team, they get a result in a
lucky manner, and you go against them next week, as value will probably
be against them. However, our strong advise is to avoid betting on or
against the same team more than three times in a row after not winning
any of the previous bets regarding them – winning the bet would give you
a short mental relief, but losing it would affect your confidence and
make it almost impossible for you to objectively judge the team in
question in the future. As for chasing losses in general, you know that
you are chasing when you took 4 bets on a Monday evening after ending
the weekend in a heavy loss. Having an occasional bad day/week is
normal in betting, and the last thing you should be trying to do is to
try and win the money back immediately – if you enter a day with the
mindset of ‘I have to win today’, you will end up forcing bets – on the
long run, it will have terrible consequences on both your confidence
and cash balance. If you ended a day in minus due to errors you made
yourself(taking poor bets which you wouldn’t have otherwise taken), we
recommend(unless you are very experienced), skipping the next day of
betting. Even if you take good bets, there is a chance you could lose
again, and this scenario could leave you with a confidence problem that
could stick with you for weeks or months.
5.
Rationalization of poor results of certain teams
A thing that often leads to chasing is that punters unconsciously try
to justify poor results of good teams and good results of bad teams. Ie,
Xerez is an unfashionable team in Primera. Once they go on a 4 match
run without defeat, you just know that there will be an army of punters
going against them, that will find reasons why they’ve been lucky in
every of the matches of their good run. Of course, it is completely
possible for a team to really be lucky or unlucky several times in a
row, but you should, whatever you think about a team, ensure to be
rational at all times and all costs and look at things from an objective
perspective. It is very possible for a great team to play like a
mediocre one for a substantial period of time and vice-versa, and when
you bet on a good team having a poor run of results ended, you should
always wait for odds on them to be very, very tempting. Ie, many punters
were happy to back Atletico Madrid at -1.25 vs Almeria as “they
previously had a very tough schedule, were unlucky, etc”; and the match
ended in a 2-2 draw. The right way to approach things is for the team in
question to get huge odds – we took them at nearly 1.9 vs Mallorca –
this maybe doesn’t seem like the right example, as they conceded a late
goal to be held to a draw; but this type of pick will result in long
time profit, while the aforementioned type won’t. Note that a football
match lasts for 90 minutes and, although the team you think is good
might have missed some chances during that time and conceded a funny
goal, the fact is that 90 minutes is a lot of time, and if a team cannot
secure a win during this time in several matches in a row and keeps
conceding funny goals, chances are that the team has a mental problem,
and you shouldn’t bet on them again unless you have a big reason to do
so.
6. Not being critical of yourself
One of the keys to becoming a successful punter is to be extremely
critical of yourself. Be angry with yourself when you take a bet that is
not value, admit it that you were lucky to win that bet on Thursday,
question yourself even when you win, don’t hide behind your ‘previously
proven methods’ when you hit a poor run of form. As discussed in our
article regarding hit rate, the chances of a 60% punter going on a
lengthy losing run are not too bid, of course, you will have a 0-3 and
3-7 once in a while, but if it happens too often; look at what went
wrong. “The bet lost, but it was value” can be heard by some tipsters
even after their teams suffer a 5-0 hammering, of course, it’s possible
for a value bet to lose like that, but the fact is that you should look
back on each and every one of your bets with maximum objectivity and we
are sure that you will find some factors you missed out on and some
estimations you were wrong at. No matter how experienced or skilled
punters are, they always make mistakes(we do too, of course), and the
best thing you can do for yourself is to study your previous bets and
keep your number of errors at a minimum. Don’t access your previous bets
only based on whether they won or lost, analyze entire courses of
matches, movements of odds, team news, ask yourself if you would’ve
taken the bet again, regardless of whether it won or lost. Admitting you
were wrong can be difficult, but not being critical enough on
themselves leaves punters with unmerited self confidence which always
leads to self-destruction.
7. Gambler's fallacy
According to Wikipedia, “ The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte
Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief
that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated
independent trials of some random process then these deviations are
likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For
example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger
number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe
that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses”
I’m sure you heard many stories of people who lost a lot of money in
casinos, betting on red after the ball stopped on black 15 or 16 times
in a row. Of course, chances of the ball ending on red or black remain
the same regardless of the previous outcomes, although it could be
logical to believe that ‘it’s time for red to happen”.
Things aren’t quite the same at betting, as a long losing/winning runs
can affect teams in different ways, but the sure thing is that most of
people have an intuitional need to try and ‘stop’ such runs by betting
on the run to end, while the effects such a run could have on a team are
debatable at best.
Winning runs can often cause teams to become too complacent, and drop
points against a very unfashionable opponent when most of the people
were reasoning that “[in form team] is too hot for [other team] to
handle, who cares if the odds are low”.
Losing runs can, of course, motivate teams to try and play better, but
they can also leave the players with a terrible lack of confidence. Such
teams have a few traits that often repeat themselves, conceding shortly
after scoring, needing too many chances to score, conceding injury time
goals, etc. Moreover, bookies know that people will bet on fashionable
teams in long losing runs, and will therefore often offer small odds on
such teams that cannot be value – Ipswich, winless in eight matches at
that time, being offered at only 2.1 at home against Nottingham Forest,
who previously hadn’t lost away in five and a half months, is a typical
example of this.
The key note to remember is that a lot of players have Gambler’s fallacy
and bookies set odds according to that. Always think twice before
trying to end a winning/losing run, as the bookies know that a lot of
people will try to do so, and odds on your selection of choice could be
low despite your reasoning on why the run should end making sense.
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